Breaking down the GHSA’s new power rankings for the playoffs

The GHSA elected to separate private schools into their own bracket before this year for classes A/Division I-3A and use a power ranking system they call the Post Season Ranking Formula to seed teams and fill empty spots.

With that change comes the adoption of power rankings and at-large playoff spots. GHSA will first take out the private schools from the rankings, then rank the remaining teams as follows with a
combination of region finish and power ranking.

The power ranking formula is calculated using a combo of a team’s winning percentage, the winning percentage of its opponents and the winning percentage of the teams that have played those opponents. The score falls between 0 and 1.

Don Corr, the associate director of the GHSA, said the change will bring a lot of positives for the lower classifications.

“It’s a good thing for our teams because it makes it more balanced. Not all regions are created equal,” he said. “This gives teams with a really difficult region a chance to make the playoffs if they have a harder schedule.”

Here’s how the playoff rankings work, and how a team outside the top four in a region can still make the postseason.

Teams that win their region are given the top spots in order of their power rating — so even if a second-place finisher from a strong region is better than a weak region winner, that region winner still gets a higher seed and home playoff game as a reward for winning its region.

The second-place finishers are put in the bracket seedings next, again in order by PSR.

The third and fourth place finishers are where things get interesting — the third and fourth place teams are lumped together, ranked as one unit and ordered by PSR. And, because the private schools leave open spots behind depending on where they finish in each region, there will be room for at-large bids.

Any gap left by a private school team that finished top-four will be filled by an at-large team based on PSR. Teams outside the top four in a region will have a chance to make the playoffs, if their PSR is strong enough. These teams are also lumped in with third and fourth place teams and all ranked by PSR in a unit.

That means a third-place region finisher could host a playoff game, and it also means more balanced opening round matchups. Schools are rewarded for playing tougher schedules and winning against better teams.

Take the Westside Seminoles, who rank in the top-16 of the 2A power rankings thanks to their difficult schedule despite a 4-5 record as of Monday. Though they likely would have been in anyways as an automatic qualifier, the Seminoles now have a chance to host a home game.

“I was a math minor and teach  statistics, so I really like this for the balance it gives them,” Corr said. “We took an existing formula, the RPI most people know from NCAA basketball, and just tweaked to fit high school sports a bit better.”

That formula weighs home, away and neutral-site games differently and, since it’s based on winning percentages, can put teams with worse records higher than teams that seem superior based off of wins and losses alone. Sometimes the system can look strange — Dodge County lost to Northeast in a 40-19 blowout last week, but still sits one spot ahead of the Raiders in the power rankings as of Monday.

Another consequence is an uncertain playoff picture right up until the final game. Howard, for instance, will not have its playoff fate decided until after its challenging three-game stretch between Halloween and Nov. 9.

With matchups uncertain and multiple teams like Howard and Southwest on the brink, final positions should be determined by the second week of November.